A summary of what’s been going on in the ECAC over winter break, and final standing predictions
#1. Union College (+1 point over Cornell, 1 more game played, 0-0-1 vs. Cornell)
Up until this weekend, the Dutchmen were the only team who had not lost a single ECAC game. Even though both Harvard and Dartmouth solved them in Schenectady this past weekend, the Union team is still a top-tiered team. Over the break, UC had two seven-goal outings; a 7-0 drubbing of the awful Connecticut team, and a 7-3 win at Princeton. Other than that, their only notable game was a close neutral-site loss to Massachusetts. Don’t be fooled by this weekend’s hiccup. The Union hockey program has been steadily improving over the past 3 or 4 years, and the benefits are finally showing. This placement is no fluke. UC travels to Lynah for the final weekend of the regular season, a game that could determine the regular-season champion. Prediction: 2nd in the ECAC
#2. Cornell University
#3. Yale University (Tied with Cornell, 1 more game, 1-0-0)
Last season, Yale surprised most of the league with strong team play and offensive strength, winning the regular-season and playoff ECAC titles. This season, it is no surprise to anyone. Yale’s offense continues to terrify opponents. Over winter break, Yale averaged an incredible 5 goals per game over a stretch of 7 games. This included 8-5 and 7-4 victories over league foes Brown and Quinnipiac. The Bulldogs only had 2 non-conference matchups over break, but both were impressive: a 6-1 win over Ferris St. (#6 in the RPI) followed by a 2-2 tie against the even stronger Wisconsin (#3 in RPI). Prediction: 4th
#4. St. Lawrence University (Tied with Cornell, 1 more game, 0-0-1)
SLU had a very busy non-conference schedule over winter break. They lost to Vermont and then beat Boston College, two Hockey East teams with high hopes for a NCAA tournament spot. After that, they could only tie Nebraska-Omaha, and split a weekend against Niagara of the CHA. Cornell paid the Saints a visit over break, in a game where SLU demonstrated their offensive prowess. The game ended a hard-fought 1-1 tie, due largely to one of the best outings of the season from Ben Scrivens, and a nearly equally impressive performance from his associate at the other end, sophomore netminder Kain Tisi. Tisi and SLU forward Travis Vermeulen are reigning ECAC goaltender and player of the week, respectively, for a few weeks running now, and the Saints have snuck into consideration for the Pairwise Rankings. Tomorrow’s rematch at Lynah should be an exciting game, and an important one for both clubs. Prediction: 3rd
#5. Quinnipiac University (-2, 2 more games, 1-0-0)
The Bobcats are a team that are falling, and falling fast. Their early-season success was one of the biggest surprises in all of college hockey over the first quarter of the season. Q earned their first top-ten ranking in the polls in university history, and seemed to be having a breakout year. Their mid-season fall, however, has been an even bigger surprise. They have not won a league game in over two months, and their last win of any sort was back on December 12—against American International, the worst team in college hockey. They need to do something soon to fix whatever’s broken, before the season is completely lost. Prediction: 9th
#6. Colgate University (-3, 0 more games, 0-1-0)
“Inconsistent” has been a good word to describe our friends from Hamilton over the past few years. Their past two weekends of conference play demonstrate this. They got cooked in SLU 4-0, but followed that up with a dominant 6-2 win in Clarkson. In early December, they lost 3-1 against Union, and then came back for a 5-3 victory over RPI. In five nonconference games over break, they went a disappointing 1-3-1, with both the win and the tie coming against Robert Morris. Prediction: 6th
#7. Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (-3, 1 more game, 0-1-0)
The Engineers have finally found their way out of the bottom tier of the ECAC, where they have resided for the past few years. Over break, the team won two important non-conference matchups on the road, against reigning champions Boston University and against Michigan, before losing to Michigan St. While they have not been quite as successful against ECAC teams, they do have a win against Yale, and have gone a respectable 3-1-1 in January in-league. If they can keep this up, they could wind up in decent position come postseason. Prediction: 5th
#8. Harvard University(-3, 2 more games, 0-1-0)
Four of Hahvahd’s five league wins have come over winter break, including those against top-of-the-pack Yale and Union. They did not fare as well in non-conference matchups, however, going 0-3-0 against BC and Minnesota. While the month of January may have given the Crimson reason to hope for a late-season surge, it will be difficult: only 3 of their remaining 9 games are against teams below them in the standings. Their inability to beat weaker Brown, Princeton, and especially Clarkson early in the season may come back to haunt them in the standings for the playoffs. Prediction: 7th
#9. Brown University (-7, 1 more game, 0-1-0)
At least Brown has made their way out of the very bottom of the league. They have not climbed far though. The are 1-5 over the month of January, and have been outscored 34-18 over that stretch. That is an average of almost 6 goals against per game. With such a leaky defense, the season does not look too good for them. Prediction: 10th
#10. Princeton University (-9,1 more game, 0-1-0)
The tigers have shown themselves capable of some offensive outbursts over winter break, notably in a 6-6 tie against Maine and an 8-1 demolition of Connecticut. They did manage to beat Cornell in the Florida College classic, but in conference-standings games, their only wins have come against the falling Q and the weak Clarkson and Dartmouth. Their offense might be able to steal them a couple more games…but probably not. Prediction: 8th
#11. Dartmouth College (-10, 1 more game, 0-1-0)
The Big Green pulled off a surprising 9-4 victory over Brown, and perhaps a more surprising win on the road against Union, but otherwise have lost consistently over the course of winter break. Unfortunately for them, the win against top tier Union, and another in November against SLU, will probably mean nothing more than avoiding the basement. Prediction: 11th
#12. Clarkson University (-12, 1 more game, 0-1-0)
This has been a rare off-year for CCT. Only one win since November 20th, and that was against a team who plays hockey in Alabama. Nothing worth noting over winter break for the usually good Golden Knights. Prediction: 12th
Hmmm. I rank Yale a little higher. Given their tie against Ferris State, their tie against the monstrous Wisconsin, and a win against Cornell, I'm willing to give Yale either first or second in the ECAC. Even though the Saints beat them, the Saints also lost to Niagara, which is pathetic.
ReplyDeleteI absolutely agree with RPI pushing for the top tier. I think Union, Cornell, Yale, and SLU have it wrapped up, but RPI is pesky and I wouldn't be surprised if they make a push for Albany next year.
I don't think Q is going to fall into the bottom 4. I think they are going to rebound and win a few games to stay in the middle.