Standings entering the final week…

	Pts	Friday 2/26	Saturday 2/27
Yale	30	@Princeton	@Q
Union	28	Cornell	Colgate
Cornell	28	Union	RPI
RPI	22	@Colgate	@Cornell
Colgate	22	RPI	Union
SLU	21	Dartmouth	Harvard
Q	18	Brown	Yale
Harvard	17	@Clarkson	@SLU

 

Here’s what’s for certain:

• With Yale holding a 2 point lead and the tiebreaker over both Cornell and Union, they are almost a lock for the regular season title.  Due to the tiebreaker, either team would need to beat Yale outright to take 1st.  This is only possible if Yale puts up a 1-point weekend.  Considering Yale’s 6 game winning streak and the relatively weak opponents they face in the final weekend, its a safe bet that Yale is ending #1.
• Union and Cornell (T-2) each have a 6 point lead over RPI and Colgate (T-4).  With only 4 points remaining, Union and Cornell are guaranteed to finish 2nd and 3rd, in either order.  UC and CU tied earlier in the season, so the winner of Friday’s game will earn the tiebreaker and thus end in 2nd, regardless of Saturday’s outcome.
• Harvard’s maximum possible points total is 21.  They cannot possibly get a first-round bye.
• Quinnipiac is unable to get a first-round bye either.  Because Colgate plays Rensselaer, it is certain that at least one of those teams will finish with 23 or more points (if a team wins, they will have 24.  If they tie, both have 23).  Q can only reach 22.
• Clarkson is the only team that is mathematically unable to land a home playoff series at this point.
• SLU, RPI, and ‘Gate are all guaranteed a home playoff match.  One of these teams will claim 4th.
• The ECAC re-seeds teams after the first playoff round.  Thus, the final order of teams 5-12 means very little to Cornell at the moment.  The only outcomes that can definitely affect us are 4th and 5th places:Cornell will not face either of those teams until the Albany weekend, if ever.

Due to this fact, and the importance of the first-round bye, by far the most exciting scenario to follow this weekend will be the 3-way race between Colgate, RPI, and St. Lawrence.  These teams are guaranteed to end 4th-6th in some order, although that order is still entirely up in the air.

• Because the Colgate-RPI game makes it impossible for both teams to leave with 2 points, SLU has a very decent chance of claiming the final bye, and will almost definitely not end lower than 5th.  The saints have tiebreakers over both Colgate and RPI.  The key is that it is impossible for both Colgate and RPI to have 4-point weekends.  Essentially, the Saints control their own fate.  Even if both the higher teams have 3-point weekends (the worst-case scenario), SLU can earn 4 points, end in a 3-way tie, and win the tiebreaker and the bye.  If Friday’s game in Hamilton has a winner, then 3 or 4 points for SLU guarantee them at least 5th, regardless of Saturday.  If the loser on Friday also loses on Saturday (pretty likely considering the opponents), then the Saints only need a single point on the weekend to claim 5th.  I am going on record on now saying, “the only way SLU ends 6th or lower is if they lose both games this weekend”

While it is not nearly as important or interesting to Cornell fans, the other exciting race this weekend will be to determine which other two teams will earn home playoff match-ups.

• There are two home playoff match spots that are still up for grabs, and 5 teams within reach.  Dartmouth, though mathematically in the running, can be ruled out now, as their only hope is for a Princeton-Brown tie, and then for Princeton, Brown , and Harvard to all lose (technically, they also have a chance if Brown has a 4-point weekend, and Q, Harvard, and Princeton all lose both games).
• Harvard loses the tiebreaker against Princeton, but wins it against Brown.  Thus, their only guarantee is by winning both games this weekend, but one win would be enough if neither Brown nor Princeton earn 4 points.
• Brown plays both Princeton and Quinnipiac, and so they have most of the power in controlling who gets the final 2 spots.  Whichever team loses in either of those games is effectively eliminated from contention for the bye.

FINAL PREDICTION (apologies in advance for the final 6:  I really don’t care all that much to put in the effort)

1. Yale

2. Cornell

3. Union

4. St. Lawrence

5. Rensselaer

6. Colgate

7. Harvard

8. Brown

9. Quinnipiac

10. Princeton

11. Dartmouth

12. Clarkson

The Home Stretch

	Pts	Friday 2/19	Saturday 2/20	Friday 2/26	Saturday 2/27
Yale	26	SLU	Clarkson	@Princeton	@Q
Cornell	26	@Harvard	@Dartmouth	Union	RPI
Union	24	Princeton	Q	Cornell	Colgate
SLU	20	@Yale	@Brown	Dartmouth	Harvard
RPI	20	Q	Princeton	@Colgate	@Cornell
Colgate	19	@Dartmouth	@Harvard	RPI	Union
Q	18	@RPI	@Union	Brown	Yale
Harvard	17	Cornell	Colgate	@Clarkson	@SLU

The current top-8 teams in the ECAC, and their remaining schedule

With two weekends remaining in regular-season ECAC play, its time to start thinking about the postseason.  If you don’t know, every ECAC team makes the postseason.  In the first round, the top four seeds get a bye week, while teams 5-8 host teams 9-12.  The following week, teams 1-4 host the winners of the first round games.  The final 4 meet in Albany the following weekend.

Each team has regular-season 4 games remaining.  Thus, each team can add as many as 8 points to their current total if they win out (or, of course, as few as 0 if they go 0-4).  Notice that, mathematically, any of the teams above Harvard can currently surpass our total.  Also notice that, after the victory in Colgate, Harvard is unable to match our point total.  We cannot end lower than 7th, and are guaranteed a home playoff round of some sort.  Hooray!

As of right now, the standings are clustered tightly.  Only a single win separates 4th place (and a 1st round bye) from 7th place.  However, there are 11 games remaining between teams on this list.  Most teams play 3 games against others currently in the top-8 (Yale and St. Lawrence are the only exceptions, with 2 each).

There are three biggest storylines to watch over the following two weekends:

1. First Place: 5 teams are currently in reach of the league top seed, but that number could be trimmed to 3 as early as Friday when Yale hosts St. Lawrence.  A Yale victory eliminates SLU (and also Renssellaer) from contention for the top spot.  This game also is significant for Cornell: after losing both regular-season games against Yale, we would lose in a tiebreaker against Yale if we ended the season tied with them in points.  Thus, our only chance at first place is for Yale to lose more games than we do from here out (and, obviously, at least 1).  The game against SLU is the most likely one for them to lose, as the rest of their schedule is not particularly difficult.  Beyond this game, the next most interesting game in the race for 1st will be the showdown between Union and Cornell the following Friday.  We tied them at the first meeting this season, and the outcome of this game will almost certainly determine which of those two teams will finish the season higher.
2. 4th Place, the final bye spot:  Currently, SLU, RPI, and Colgate are all but dead even for the 4th spot, but only one can claim it in the end.  Furthermore, each of those teams plays one game against a higher ranked team.  Any one win against a higher-ranked team will go far towards claiming the bye (and would make life more tense for the top-3 team that lost).    Finally, Colgate hosts RPI in a head-to-head matchup on the final weekend.  While it might not guarantee the winner a bye, it will almost certainly eliminate the loser from the running.
3. 8th Place, the final team to receive a home playoff round:  Technically, Clarkson is the only team that is mathematically eliminated from a home playoff round.  In all likelihood, though, Dartmouth is also a long shot.  However, Princeton has been bouncing back late in the season, and even Brown is close enough to sniff a home playoff round.  Meanwhile, Quinnipiac has only recently recovered from a freefall, and could easily continue to far, and Harvard’s low point total leaves them on the precipice.  Though not as interesting as the first two storylines, still worth watching.

As usual, the final weeks of ECAC play should be exciting to follow, and the final seeding will be changing up until the final games.  It will be fun, so stay tuned!