This weekend, the Big Red will be hosting Harvard for the ECAC hockey. The Crimson backed out of the regular season, losing 6 of their final 7 ECAC games and coughing up home-ice for the first round. They redeemed themselves with a road sweep of Princeton to advance to the quarterfinals. Harvard will be looking to carry the momentum and confidence of winning a road series with them to Ithaca. They also have the slight advantage of being the only first-round series to finish in 2 games. The Crimson will be coming into Lynah more rested than any of the other visiting teams this weekend. However, Cornell has beaten Harvard twice this season, a 6-3 offensive outburst in Lynah in November, and a 3-0 shutout just a few weeks ago in Cambridge. Cornell has home-ice advantage, a talented team, and has solved both of Harvard’s goalies already this season.
Keys to the Series
- Start Strong: The bye week can be both a boon and a curse to the home teams for the quarterfinals round. There is no denying that the week is crucial for resting the team, healing some minor injuries, and mentally regrouping for the playoff run. however, it also means that Cornell has not seen a game-situation in 2 weeks. Every year at the Florida College Hockey Classic, Cornell demonstrates what some time away from the regular hockey routine can do to their discipline, conditioning, and system. Harvard is coming off an emotional win; Cornell is coming off of a week of relaxation. If Cornell allows Harvard the opportunity to get into the series early, it will be difficult to finish them off. On the other hand, if Cornell never allows them to get a handhold, we stand a decent chance at this weekend.
- Shoot the Damn Puck: Harvard has been rolling the tandem of juniors Richter and Carroll in net. Cornell has beaten both of them. Both of them have pretty mediocre stats (approximately 3 GAA, 0.900 sv %). Richter played both games last weekend against Princeton, and apparently had a strong series, reflective of his form prior to a 1-season suspension for academic plagarism. Despite one strong weekend, I do not think either of them have the power or presence to single-handedly win a game against a top-tier team. They are nowhere near the level of Scrivens, Kalemba, or Tisi (or Leggio and Dechanich of previous years). If they get tested, they will crack.
- Watch the Big 2: Harvard’s goal scoring is no more distributed among the players than Cornell’s. Overall, they don’t score that many goals, and most of them come from the top 2 guys: Louis Leblanc (#20) and Alex Killorn (#19). Keeping them off the scoreboard will be crucial; if they aren’t putting the biscuit in the basket, Harvard will be hard-pressed to find someone else to do it.
- Special Teams: Its true in the regular season, and twice as true in the postseason: special teams wins games. If your powerplay can net 2, and your PK limits them to 0, then they are already in a tough hole to get out of. Cornell’s powerplay has looked both wonderful and terrible at times this season. It is crucial for it to be clicking this weekend.
The 7-Defenseman Situation
Over the course of this season, Cornell has dressed 7 defenseman and 11 forwards (instead of the usual 6 and 12). There have been a number of apparent reasons for going this route, most recently injuries to top forwards. Reports from this past Tuesday indicate that Junior Pat Kennedy will likely not be ready for this weekend’s games (although that is far from a definite report). Prior to his injury, Freshman John Esposito missed some time with injury. If the team is at full health, expect the standard 12 forwards and 6 defensemen.
However, if Kennedy is still injured, Schafer has options. Recent history indicates that he will dress 7 defensemen. Occasionally, when doing this he has given Keir Ross shifts as both a defenseman and a forward in the same game. This seemed to backfire, however, as it resulted in a number of too-many-men penalties on Cornell (likely because on any given shift, his teammates could not tell which position he was supposed to be playing, so an extra player would jump on incorrectly). More recently, when Schafer used 7 defensemen he would simply give one of the forwards extra shifts. This past weekend, we saw Riley Nash, Blake Gallagher, and even Tyler Roeszler getting shifts on the 4th line in addition to their normal pairings. In post-game press conferences, the Coach defends this system by saying it allows him to keep his defensemen more rested, and thus better-able to shut-d down the opponents top scorers. The flip side of this coin, however, is that the forwards are then more tired out. This was most evident in the Dartmouth game a few weeks ago (Cornell had played 3 games in a week fr the first time in months, and in the last 10 minutes the forwards all looked exhausted. This led to them being well out of position in the defensive zone. This in turn led to undisciplined penalties, and giving Dartmouth clear paths to the net. Dartmouth scored 3 times in the final 7 minutes of the game to turn a 4-2 lead for Cornell into a 5-4 loss). All season, Cornell has struggled on Saturday games, and this overuse of the forwards might contribute to it. If this is the case, the effects will only be amplified if the series goes to a third game.
If Schafer decides to keep with the standard 12 defenseman, there is a question of who will get the call. Axell and Kary both have recieved playing time this season, but have looked largely ineffective on the ice. Chris Moulson looked strong in his few games, but there is a possibility that he is also injured. If Kennedy is not ready to play, Coach might be hesitant to activate Axell or Kary, so expect a repeat of the 7 defense roster..
Prediction:
Friday: Cornell 5-3
Saturday: Cornell 3-2 (OT)
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