Meanwhile, in the ECAC…

A summary of what’s been going on in the ECAC over winter break, and final standing predictions

#1. Union College (+1 point over Cornell, 1 more game played, 0-0-1 vs. Cornell)

Up until this weekend, the Dutchmen were the only team who had not lost a single ECAC game.  Even though both Harvard and Dartmouth solved them in Schenectady this past weekend, the Union team is still a top-tiered team.  Over the break, UC had two seven-goal outings; a 7-0 drubbing of the awful Connecticut team, and a 7-3 win at Princeton.  Other than that, their only notable game was a close neutral-site loss to Massachusetts.  Don’t be fooled by this weekend’s hiccup.  The Union hockey program has been steadily improving over the past 3 or 4 years, and the benefits are finally showing.  This placement is no fluke.  UC travels to Lynah for the final weekend of the regular season, a game that could determine the regular-season champion.  Prediction: 2nd in the ECAC

#2. Cornell University

#3. Yale University (Tied with Cornell, 1 more game, 1-0-0)

Last season, Yale surprised most of the league with strong team play and offensive strength, winning the regular-season and playoff ECAC titles.  This season, it is no surprise to anyone.  Yale’s offense continues to terrify opponents.  Over winter break, Yale averaged an incredible 5 goals per game over a stretch of 7 games.  This included 8-5 and 7-4 victories over league foes Brown and Quinnipiac.  The Bulldogs only had 2 non-conference matchups over break, but both were impressive: a 6-1 win over Ferris St. (#6 in the RPI) followed by a 2-2 tie against the even stronger Wisconsin (#3 in RPI). Prediction: 4th

#4. St. Lawrence University (Tied with Cornell, 1 more game, 0-0-1)

SLU had a very busy non-conference schedule over winter break.  They lost to Vermont and then beat Boston College, two Hockey East teams with high hopes for a NCAA tournament spot.  After that, they could only tie Nebraska-Omaha, and split a weekend against Niagara of the CHA.  Cornell paid the Saints a visit over break, in a game where SLU demonstrated their offensive prowess.  The game ended a hard-fought 1-1 tie, due largely to one of the best outings of the season from Ben Scrivens, and a nearly equally impressive performance from his associate at the other end, sophomore netminder Kain Tisi.  Tisi and SLU forward Travis Vermeulen are reigning ECAC goaltender and player of the week, respectively, for a few weeks running now, and the Saints have snuck into consideration for the Pairwise Rankings.  Tomorrow’s rematch at Lynah should be an exciting game, and an important one for both clubs. Prediction: 3rd

#5. Quinnipiac University (-2, 2 more games, 1-0-0)

The Bobcats are a team that are falling, and falling fast.  Their early-season success was one of the biggest surprises in all of college hockey over the first quarter of the season.  Q earned their first top-ten ranking in the polls in university history, and seemed to be having a breakout year.  Their mid-season fall, however, has been an even bigger surprise.  They have not won a league game in over two months, and their last win of any sort was back on December 12—against American International, the worst team in college hockey.  They need to do something soon to fix whatever’s broken, before the season is completely lost.  Prediction: 9th

#6. Colgate University (-3, 0 more games, 0-1-0)

“Inconsistent” has been a good word to describe our friends from Hamilton over the past few years.  Their past two weekends of conference play demonstrate this.  They got cooked in SLU 4-0, but followed that up with a dominant 6-2 win in Clarkson.  In early December, they lost 3-1 against Union, and then came back for a 5-3 victory over RPI.  In five nonconference games over break, they went a disappointing 1-3-1, with both the win and the tie coming against Robert Morris. Prediction: 6th

#7. Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (-3, 1 more game, 0-1-0)

The Engineers have finally found their way out of the bottom tier of the ECAC, where they have resided for the past few years.  Over break, the team won two important non-conference matchups on the road, against reigning champions Boston University and against Michigan, before losing to Michigan St.  While they have not been quite as successful against ECAC teams, they do have a win against Yale, and have gone a respectable 3-1-1 in January in-league.  If they can keep this up, they could wind up in decent position come postseason. Prediction: 5th

#8. Harvard University(-3, 2 more games, 0-1-0)

Four of Hahvahd’s five league wins have come over winter break, including those against top-of-the-pack Yale and Union.  They did not fare as well in non-conference matchups, however, going 0-3-0 against BC and Minnesota.  While the month of January may have given the Crimson reason to hope for a late-season surge, it will be difficult: only 3 of their remaining 9 games are against teams below them in the standings.  Their inability to beat weaker Brown, Princeton, and especially Clarkson early in the season may come back to haunt them in the standings for the playoffs. Prediction: 7th

#9. Brown University (-7, 1 more game, 0-1-0)

At least Brown has made their way out of the very bottom of the league.  They have not climbed far though.  The are 1-5 over the month of January, and have been outscored 34-18 over that stretch.  That is an average of almost 6 goals against per game.  With such a leaky defense, the season does not look too good for them.  Prediction: 10th

#10. Princeton University (-9,1 more game, 0-1-0)

The tigers have shown themselves capable of some offensive outbursts over winter break, notably in a 6-6 tie against Maine and an 8-1 demolition of Connecticut.  They did manage to beat Cornell in the Florida College classic, but in conference-standings games, their only wins have come against the falling Q and the weak Clarkson and Dartmouth.  Their offense might be able to steal them a couple more games…but probably not.  Prediction: 8th

#11. Dartmouth College (-10, 1 more game, 0-1-0)

The Big Green pulled off a surprising 9-4 victory over Brown, and perhaps a more surprising win on the road against Union, but otherwise have lost consistently over the course of winter break.  Unfortunately for them, the win against top tier Union, and another in November against SLU, will probably mean nothing more than avoiding the basement.  Prediction: 11th

#12. Clarkson University (-12, 1 more game, 0-1-0)

This has been a rare off-year for CCT.  Only one win since November 20th, and that was against a team who plays hockey in Alabama.  Nothing worth noting over winter break for the usually good Golden Knights.  Prediction: 12th

No More Do-Overs

Cornell bounced back in New Hampshire, but cannot afford any more setbacks

Just 4 days after the bad losses in Florida, the Cornell team responded with one of their best games of the season, beating the University of New Hampshire 5-2 on the Olympic-sized New Hampshire ice. The highlight of this game was an unbelievable 3-minute stretch of hockey where Cornell maintained uninterrupted possession in the UNH zone, changed lines twice while pinning the same UNH players on the ice, and capping it off with a goal by Riley Nash. Cornell had this weekend off, and resumes ECAC Hockey play on Friday.

Now that we are in 2010 and the final stretch of the regular season, we've reached the stage in the schedule where us fans can begin to obsess over rankings. In College Hockey, there are a number of different rating schemes. The two national polls (which can be found on www.USCHO.com) and the Inside College Hockey Power Rankings are fun and interesting, but ultimately reflect the opinions of a few people, and are not an accurate ranking. There are a number of numerical ranking systems, but the most important is the PairWise Ranking (PWR).

The calculation of the PWR is a complicated process (stay tuned for an overview of the process soon), but the important thing to know is that it is the closest available approximation to the secret process by which the NCAA selection committee selects teams to the national tournament in the spring. Sixteen teams make the tournament, but league champions automatically earn one of those spots regardless of their PWR. Considering the actual selection algorithm is secret, a fan who is interested can assume fairly safely that their team will be invited to the tournament if their PWR rank is better than 10th or 12th at the end of the season. (It is likely that teams ranked 14 or 15 can also get in, but it is not quite a safe bet).

Prior to the Florida weekend, Cornell's PWR was somewhere in the 8-15 range. (I did not check right before the Colorado College game, but that is usually approximately Cornell's position). After losing once to a good team and once to a mediocre team, the PWR dropped to 25, the final spot in the ranking. After winning to a decent team in UNH, the team recovered some ground, but only to 23.

In Short: Losing = big drop. Winning = small gain.

Since then, Cornell has climbed moderately, two more positions due to other teams losing. Regardless, the consequence is clear. Climbing back up the rankings is going to be difficult, and the team cannot afford many more set backs. No more do-overs. The team cannot take a mental vacation for one night, and expect a strong game the next night to compensate.

North Dakota, Yale, and Union are the 3 teams on Cornell's second-half schedule with stronger PWR rankings than us. Quinnipiac, Colgate, and St. Lawrence are the teams behind us that are most likely to climb into the top-25 PWR, if they finish the season exceptionally strongly. The way the rankings are constructed, winning against a strong team is more helpful than beating a weak team. Similarly, losing to a weak team is more destructive than losing to a strong team.

The two-game set against North Dakota are now the most important games of the season. They are the strongest opponents left on our schedule. While a loss to them (or Union or Yale) would be less devastating to our ranking than a loss to Clarkson or the other lower echelons of the ECAC, they also represent our best chance to make up ground, and to repair our image in the eyes of the nation.

That being said, the games against the mid-level ECAC teams are also important for Cornell, in order to hold them at bay and prevent them from overtaking us. The games against the low-level ECAC teams are also important, due to the dramatic effect of losing to a weak team.

Every game for the rest of the season can be seen as a season-defining match. It should be an exciting time to watch Cornell hockey. Lets Go Red!

A Major Setback

After a disappointing weekend in Estero, Fla, the Cornell team must regroup.

Before the start of the 2009-2010 season, all the talk about the Cornell mens hockey team was the potential for a great season.  Cornell retained its core of key players from last year’s round-of-eight loss to Bemidji State.  The starting goaltender, top pair defensemen, and offensive leaders all returned.  The team was returning to the ice in October with a lot of skill and experience, and the healthy return of key players who were out or playing hurt during the playoffs last season.

Then the season started.  Losses to only Yale (the reigning ECAC champions, who returned most of a team that we were unable to solve in any of 3 games last year) and Quinnipiac (a team on the rise, who made their first-ever appearance in the top-10 on the national polls shortly after beating us) left us in a strong position in the ECAC rankings.  Expectations were still high for the season, yet now tempered with the reality that even a good team needs to work through the regular season.

On November 28, Cornell saw a great opportunity slip through their fingers. In the second Red Hot Hockey game at Madison Square Garden, Cornell faced off against Boston University, the defending national champions.  The Terriers came to MSG boasting a horrendous start to the season, going 2-6-1 to tie for last place in Hockey East.  Cornell had an opportunity to crush a struggling team on the national stage.  At the start, they looked ready to do just that, jumping to an early 2-0 lead.  A diminution of intensity, and a 6-on-3 penalty kill late in the 3rd period contributed to the team only skating away with a tie.

While the tie was disappointing, fans were already looking ahead to the Florida College Hockey Classic tournament, which featured a first round matchup of #3 Colorado College against #4 Cornell.  Instead of rising to the challenge, Cornell’s team never returned from Winter Break (at least not mentally).  They were outshot 25-8 over the first 2 periods (21-3 in the second alone) and looked lost against the speedy team from the west.  Harsh words from the coach in the Ithaca Journal did not spark the team, as the next day Cornell was unable to beat the much lower-ranked Princeton (Cornell beat Princeton 5-2 in November, and should be able to win that game in their sleep). To say the least, this tournament was a major setback.

More than half the season remains, and Cornell still has an opportunity to live up to its high preseason expectations.  However, after this Sunday’s game at the University of New Hampshire, the team has only one weekend off before they hits the marathon part of the schedule.  Starting on January 15, the team plays every weekend for seven consecutive weeks, until the regular season ends.  It will be difficult to make many significant changes during the stretch.  Changes need to be made to keep this season on track, and they need to happen now.  Here are the most pressing problems that need too be addressed, as evidenced  by the College Hockey Classic:

DISCLIPLINE

Just 2 minutes and 8 seconds after Cornell returned to the ice from Winter Break, they were killing off a 5-on-3 penalty.  Ten seconds later, and Cornell was already behind 0-1 on the scoreboard.  When the day was done, Cornell had taken 22 minutes in minor penalties, including a penalty within the first minute of every period.   As they learned in Florida, dumb penalties give good opponents the opportunity to take the lead and keep it.  As they learned in MSG, dumb penalties give good opponents an opportunity salvage a game that otherwise would have been in the bag for Cornell.

Cornell was in the box for 22 minutes against CC, and 14 minutes against Princeton..  In both games, Cornell was more penalized than their opponents.  If they want to turn this season around and return to form as a national championship contender, they must reduce their time in the penalty box.  Over 10 minutes in minor penalties per game is unacceptable.  Being the more penalized team is unacceptable.

EFFORT

Hockey teams take penalties when they are being outworked.  An opponent skates faster, forechecks harder, and you are left with no way to stop them legally.  You grab them to slow them down, hit them from behind because you couldn’t legally, slash them in frustration, and then you sit for 2 minutes.  It is no coincidence that in the Colorado College game, Cornell took their fewest and Colorado College took their most penalties in the 3rd period.  This was the only period of the game where Cornell outworked CC, boasting a 19-9 shot advantage after being outshot 8-26 in the first 2 periods combined.

When Cornell was having success early this season, it was because they started the first period with jump and energy.  They outplayed their opponents for the first 10 minutes of the game, and were often rewarded with at least a 1-goal lead early.  Even when it didn’t result in a lead, this effort set the pace for the game.  Immediately, it is the opponents who are back on their heels, who need to change their game to generate offense.   Maybe in Florida, the team was still relaxing from winter break, maybe their minds were still out on the beach instead of thinking about hockey.  Whatever the reason, they did not bring the same effort that lead to quick goals against BU, and success throughout the start of the season, and the result was striking.

LEADERSHIP

In the second period of the game against Colorado College, Captain Colin Greening took a penalty while Cornell was on the powerplay, negating the powerplay and forcing the team to kill off yet another penalty as CC’s previous one expired.  As if to atone for this, Greening lept out of the box as his time expired, received a pass in the neutral zone,  skated hard down the side boards, cut across the top of the crease, and flipped the puck behind the goalie.  This beautiful goal, Cornell’s second of the period on only three shots, cut the deficit to only one goal going into the intermission and energized the team.  They came out much stronger in the 3rd, and embarrassed themselves less during the final 20 minutes.

When a team is having a rough night, it usually takes a big play to give the team some hope and turn the momentum around.  While any player can generate this spark, it is the role of the team leaders to actively look for this spark and bring the team together.  The captain did this, late in the second period when it was already too late to prevent the embarrassment that was the first 37 minutes of hockey.

Hockey teams are always going to have stretches of time when things are just not going right.  It is during these times that strong leadership is needed the most.  Cornell is expected to have strong leadership; this contributed to the high preseason expectations.  Forwards like Greening, Blake Gallagher, and Riley Nash have the skill, the intensity, and the experience to spark the team.  Leadership does not necessarily come from just goals, and a leader can send a negative message as easily as a positive one.  Brendan Nash, a senior defenseman, is also expected to be a leader on this team with his strong, responsible defensive play and his breakout pass.  Instead, he contributes more than most to the penalty problem the team is facing.  Coach Schafer proved he was aware of this by benching Nash for the game after the BU meltdown, reportedly as a punishment for his untimely penalty.

 

Cornell plays again tomorrow against the University of New Hampshire, after only a 3-day break.  It is unreasonable to expect too see much of a change in conditioning between the Florida tournament and this game.  If the team did slack off over break, we will have to wait for the Jan. 15 game against Clarkson to see an improvement in their fitness.  However, discipline, effort, and leadership all have a mental component.  Look for these aspects tomorrow night.  They will be the key to recovering from this setback, and will be vital for living up to the expectations the team is facing as they enter 2010.